Category Archives: The Evidentialism Files

Fare Thee Well…Weirdly

This is the entirety of the most intriguing site on the internet, www.micromorts.rip. I didn’t even know .rip was an option, cuz I’d have been all under that.

Micromorts

💀 We are all going to die 💀


Dying! It is what humans do. We do, however, attempt to delay this end for as long as possible. We continue to make horrible decisions around risk and death.

We can use micromorts to help track how risky an activity is and compare it to other activities. This will help us understand what is dangerous and what isn’t.

From wikipedia:

A micromort (from micro- and mortality) is a unit of risk defined as one-in-a-million chance of death Micromorts can be used to measure riskiness of various day-to-day activities. A microprobability is a one-in-a million chance of some event; thus a micromort is the microprobability of death. The micromort concept was introduced by Ronald A. Howard who pioneered the modern practice of decision analysis.

For instance, living one day at age 20 is 1 micromort, running a marathon is 7 micromorts, and riding a motorcycle for 60 miles is 10 micromorts. We can easily see that riding a motorcycle is more dangerous than running a marathon.

The following is a collection of activities and the micromorts of each activity. You can than compare, understand risks and then make decisions.

ActivityMicromorts
Mountaineering Ascent to Mt. Everest37932
Mountaineering in the Himalayas12000
Being infected by COVID1910000
Being infected by the Spanish flu3000
Mountaineerin Ascent to Matterhorn2840
Living in US during covid19 pandemic (July 2020)500
Getting out of bed (age 90)463
Base Jumping (per jump)430
First day of being born430
Giving birth (caesarean)170
Giving Birth170
Scuba diving (Trained) per year164
Giving birth (Vaginal)120
Getting out of bed (age 75)105
Giving Birth80
Night in Hospital75
Living in NYC during Covid19 (March 15 to May 9)50
Giving Birth50
Using Heroin30
serving in the U.S. armed forces in Afghanistan throughout 201025
Playing American Football20
Getting out of bed (under age 1)15
Ecstasy (MDMA)13
Going for a swim (Drowning)12
General Anesthetic (Emergency Operation)10
Riding a motorcycle (60 miles)10
Skydiving (per jump) (genera)10
SKydiving (US) (per jump)8
Skydiving (UK) (per jump)8
Hang gliding8
Running a Marathon7
Living in Maryland during Covid19 Pandemic (March 15 to May 9)7
Getting out of bed (age 45)6
Scuba diving (Trained) per dive5
Rock Climbing (per climb)3
Living 2 months with a smoker1
Walking 20 miles per day (Accident)1
Traveling 230 miles per day by. car. (accident)1
Traveling 1000 miles per day by plane(accident)1
Traveling 1000 miles per day by. train (accident)1
Eating 1000 bananas1
Spending 1 hour in a coal mine1
Eating 40 tsp of peanut butter1
Eating 100 char broiled steak1
One day alive at age 201
Skiing (per day)0.7
Horseback Riding0.5
Kangaroo Encounter0.1


The Scale of Math (Or How to Work a Vending Machine


Factslap: Zillion is not a number, but a noun. It means means very large number. Here are the real names of numbers, and the zeroes that follow them.

Here is the scale of math:

Name (number)Number (zeros behind that number)
Million1 x 10 
Billion1 x 10 
Trillion1 x 10 12 
Quadrillion1 x 10 15 
Quintillion1 x 10 18 
Sextillion1 x 10 21 
Septillion1 x 10 24 
Octillion1 x 10 27 
Nonillion1 x 10 30 
Decillion1 x 10 33 
Undecillion1 x 10 36 
Duodecillion1 x 10 39 
Tredecillion1 x 10 42 
Quattuordecillion1 x 10 45 
Quindecillion1 x 10 48 
Sexdecillion1 x 10 51 
Septendecillion1 x 10 54 
Octodecillion1 x 10 57 
Novemdecillion1 x 10 60 
Vigintillion1 x 10 63 
Unvigintillion1 x 10 66 
Duovigintillion1 x 10 69 
Trevigintillion1 x 10 72 
Quattuorvigintillion1 x 10 75 
Quinvigintillion1 x 10 78 
Sexvigintillion1 x 10 81 
Septenvigintillion1 x 10 84 
Octovigintillion1 x 10 87 
Nonvigintillion1 x 10 90 
Trigintillion1 x 10 93 
Untrigintillion1 x 10 96 
Duotrigintillion1 x 10 99 
Ten-duotrigintillion (or Googol)1 x 10 100 
Skewer’s Number1 x 10 130 
Centillion1 x 10 303 
Googolplex1 x 10 10 100 
Skewes’ Number1 x 10 to the 10th power with 8.85 decillion zeros (approximated to indicate largest know measure in the universe)

Day of the Orca

Evidentialism Slapfact: Killer whales are actually dolphins.

There are a few common misconceptions about killer whales, such as how they’re often seen as bloodthirsty creatures that hunt humans (they don’t — killer whale attacks are incredibly rare). But the biggest confusion about these black-and-white ocean dwellers is right in their name: They aren’t really whales. The Orcinus orca is actually the largest species in the Delphinidae (aka dolphin) family, weighing as much as 350 pounds at birth and growing up to 32 feet long during its 30- to 50-year life span. But in comparison to most whales — like the 100-foot blue whale, the largest animal on our planet — orcas are relatively small. Biologists also group killer whales with dolphins because of their aerodynamic body shape, which helps them reach speeds of up to 34 miles per hour, and their use of echolocation for hunting and navigation.

So why do we call them killer “whales”? The name stems from sailors of old, who witnessed the massive dolphins hunting whales (and other large marine mammals) together, and originally called them “whale killers.” Over time, the name was reordered, giving orcas a reputation as fierce and dangerous predators. These oceanic dolphins are clever hunters, known for beaching themselves to feast on seals and sea birds, and for working in pods to take down larger prey like great white sharks. But they’re also extremely social marine animals that spend their lives in matriarchal groups with as many as 40 members. Killer whales are so focused on community building that pods often host “greeting ceremonies” to meet members of other groups or welcome new babies, and hold aquatic funerals to mourn podmates. And the most reputation-busting research shows they might just like belly rubs.